My Account Log Out
Alexander Mattison

Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 79.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 77.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 79.5 @ -115.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Mattison is projected for 51.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • Minnesota has played in 7 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#3-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Minnesota Vikings have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Minnesota is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to runs 42.8% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Detroit Lions have ranked #29 against the run this year, holding opponents to 136 yards per game on the ground.
  • Lions defensive ends have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • The Minnesota Vikings offensive line has ranked #30 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked box 20.8% of the time this season -- #3-most in football.

  • Mattison has been the #50-leading rusher this season, tallying 29 yards per game on the ground.
  • He has been on the field for 22.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #36 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 30.1% of Minnesota's carries this year -- #45 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • The Vikings project to run 62.1 total plays in this contest, the #19-most of the week.
  • This offense runs the ball 40.2% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL), and they project to run 40.2% of the time in this contest.
  • In terms of efficiency, Detroit's defense has allowed 4.60 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#22-least in football).
  • Lions defensive tackles have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Lions linebackers have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Lions safeties have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Detroit Lions have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #18 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 87.9 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.2% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $3.68. It's return on investment would yeild 3%.

    Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
    © 2021 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™