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Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
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Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 79.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 77.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 79.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Mattison is projected for 51.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Minnesota has played in 7 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#3-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Minnesota is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to runs 42.8% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Detroit Lions have ranked #29 against the run this year, holding opponents to 136 yards per game on the ground.Lions defensive ends have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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The Minnesota Vikings offensive line has ranked #30 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked box 20.8% of the time this season -- #3-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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Mattison has been the #50-leading rusher this season, tallying 29 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 22.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #36 percentile among running backs.He has received 30.1% of Minnesota's carries this year -- #45 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Vikings project to run 62.1 total plays in this contest, the #19-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 40.2% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL), and they project to run 40.2% of the time in this contest.In terms of efficiency, Detroit's defense has allowed 4.60 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#22-least in football).Lions defensive tackles have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Lions linebackers have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Lions safeties have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Detroit Lions have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #18 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 87.9 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $3.68. It's return on investment would yeild 3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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