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Adrian Peterson

Adrian Peterson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
Adrian Peterson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 37.8 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -120.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have had the #2-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked box 9.2% of the time this season -- #28-most in football.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 9.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #26 most in the league.

  • CONS:
  • The Seattle Seahawks offensive line has ranked #29 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • Seattle has played in the #10-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • Seattle is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • This offense runs the ball 36.9% of the time in a neutral context (#23 in the NFL), and they project to run 36.9% of the time in this contest.
  • 49ers linebackers have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • 49ers safeties have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Peterson is projected for 7.1% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • The Seahawks project to run 62.0 total plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.
  • This offenses projects to runs 40.2% of the time in this contest (#13 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have ranked #15 against the run this year, holding opponents to 110 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, San Francisco's defense has allowed 4.39 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#14-least in football).
  • 49ers defensive ends have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • 49ers defensive tackles have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.


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