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Adrian Peterson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
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Adrian Peterson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 37.8 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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The Seattle Seahawks have had the #2-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked box 9.2% of the time this season -- #28-most in football.The San Francisco 49ers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 9.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #26 most in the league.
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CONS:
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The Seattle Seahawks offensive line has ranked #29 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Seattle has played in the #10-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.Seattle is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offense runs the ball 36.9% of the time in a neutral context (#23 in the NFL), and they project to run 36.9% of the time in this contest.49ers linebackers have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.49ers safeties have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Peterson is projected for 7.1% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Seahawks project to run 62.0 total plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.This offenses projects to runs 40.2% of the time in this contest (#13 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The San Francisco 49ers have ranked #15 against the run this year, holding opponents to 110 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, San Francisco's defense has allowed 4.39 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#14-least in football).49ers defensive ends have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.49ers defensive tackles have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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