New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins - Week 15

New York Jets (3-10) at Miami Dolphins (6-7)

Miami's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #28 in football with a low 318 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their ground attack, clocking in at #31 in the league with just 3.39 yards per carry. Such limited efficiency has led to just the #31-most total rushing yards: 77 per game. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. Unfortunately for Miami, their line ranks #6-worst in the league in run blocking. What makes their struggles all the more jarring is how often they've faced a stacked box: 7.8% of the time, the #4-least of any team in the league. Even though opposing defenses haven't brought an extra tackler up near the line of scrimmage very often, the Dolphins still haven't been able to get their ground game going. Perhaps because they routinely failt to successfully establish the run, Miami has also lacked effectiveness through the air. They've scraped together a measly 6.26 yards per target, ranking the bottom 10 in football.

When it comes to their defense, the Dolphins check in at #25 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 278 yards per game against Miami this year (#31 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #21 against them with 4.58 yards per ground attempt. This Dolphins defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 5.22 yards per target (#4-best in the league). Miami's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 8.72 yards per target (#2-worst in the league).

New York's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #32 in the league while allowing 418 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #1-most yards per carry: 5.05. That's not to give any unnecessary credit to their pass defense, though, which checks in at #1-worst in yards per target (8.97). What makes New York's issues all the more troublesome is that they've struggled in spite of stacking the box with an extra defender 21.9% of the time -- #2-most of any team in football. The Jets linebackers have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #1-worst in the NFL by this measure.

In terms of their offense, the Jets have ranked #21 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 256 yards per game (#12 in football). On the ground they've ranked #28 with 4.00 yards per carry. They've been most effective throwing to running backs, who have racked up 54 yards per game (ranking #3).

The Dolphins have won 5 straight games, while the Jets have lost 2 in a row. The Dolphins are coming off a bye and will have had 14 days rest, which is longer then normal. The extra time should help the Dolphins get healthier and prepare for the game. This may enhance their home field advantage this week. These two teams are divisional challengers. This rivalry should add extra significance to the game, and both teams are likely to be ultra motivated. It was quite the blowout the last time these two teams played. The Dolphins won by double digits at home, crushing the Jets 24-0 in Week 11 of 2021. This will be a back-to-back road game for the Jets. The extra travel won't help the Jets, and this could slightly upgrade the Dolphins home field advantage.

There has been some line movement on the Game Total toward the Under. It opened 44.5 before it was bet down to 42.0. The Over has approximately 52% of the bets, but only 26% of the cash. Compared to all the other game action this week, the Under has the highest percentage of cash this week.

PROJECTION:
Miami Dolphins - 26.04
New York Jets - 17.86

Win Probability:
MIA 77% / NYJ 23%

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