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New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins - Week 13

 
 
 
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NYG MIA
New York Giants (4-7) at Miami Dolphins (5-7)

This week’s matchup between the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins has all the makings of an ugly game. Both teams limp in with sub-par offenses, with the Giants ranking #23 in the NFL in yards per game at 326 and the Dolphins checking in at #24 with 320 yards per game. As a result of these struggling offenses, the current Game Total on this game is 40.0.
 
The Giants biggest hurdle to success has been their run game. They've attempted a run on 35.6% of their plays this year, #8-least in the football. They've averaged a mere 4.08 yards per carry, ranking #26 in the NFL. A good run game needs a good offensive line, and that's one thing the Giants do not have. Their line ranks just #26 in the league in opening up holes for the running backs. Perhaps because they haven't been able to establish the run, they've also averaged just 6.61 yards per target through the air, #25 in the league. In terms of play-calling, they don't always make sound analytical choices. They rank #31 in the NFL in misdirection rate. Giving the defense trick look can confuse them and ultimately lead to more offensive success, but the Giants haven't done much of this type of thing.

The Dolphins biggest hurdle to success has been their run game. They've attempted a run on 34.4% of their plays this year, #6-least in the football. They've averaged a mere 3.47 yards per carry, ranking #31 in the NFL. A good run game needs a good offensive line, and that's one thing the Dolphins do not have. Their line ranks just #27 in the league in opening up holes for the running backs. Perhaps because they haven't been able to establish the run, they've also averaged just 6.30 yards per target through the air, #28 in the league. In terms of play-calling, they don't always make sound analytical choices. They rank #25 in the NFL in going for it on 4th down. The math shows coaches ought to be more aggressive on fourth downs, but the Dolphins don't appear to have gotten the memo.
 
Photo by Adam Hunger - EliteSportsNY
 
 
The Dolphins have won 4 straight games, while the Giants have won 1 in a row. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 15 in 2019. That game resulted in a road win for the Giants with a final score of 31-24.
 
This matchup has the #2 lowest Game Total this week. Low Totals imply there will be a lack of scoring opportunities and also correlates to a lack of offensive yards. Sizable line movement toward the Under has shifted the Game Total. It opened 43.5 before it was bet down to 40.0. The Over has approximately 53% of the bets, but only 28% of the cash. Compared to all the other game action this week, the Under has the highest percentage of cash this week.
 
PROJECTION:
Miami Dolphins - 23.13
New York Giants - 15.72

Win Probability:
MIA 75% / NYG 25%
 
 
 
 
 
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