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Las Vegas Raiders (6-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
Kansas City's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #3 in the NFL at 409 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Chiefs 301 yards per game through the air ranks #2-best in football this year. It's easy to see why they've done so well through the air when you notice the quality of their offensive line, which ranks #1 in the league in pass protection. Their tight ends have played a big part in their offensive effectiveness, averaging 80 yards per game (ranking #1). This presents a decided advantage for Kansas City given that the Raiders haven't had much success in stopping the pass this year, giving up 6.91 yards per target (#31-worst in the NFL).
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When it comes to their defense, the Chiefs check in at #24 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 267 yards per game against Kansas City this year (#23 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #26 against them with 4.71 yards per ground attempt. This Chiefs defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 62.9% of their passes (#8-lowest in the league). Kansas City's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 8.97 yards per target (#2-worst in the league).
Las Vegas's biggest strength has been their passing offense, ranking #6 in the league with 278 yards per game through the air. Their wide receivers have been particularly efficient, racking up 10.97 yards per target (ranking #1). It's also worth noting that opposing defenses have stacked the box a whopping 16.3% of the time against the Raiders in an attempt to stop the run game. But because passing is so much more important for an offensive to run effectively, this has opened up opportunities for Las Vegas's offense to succeed through the air. This represents a particular advantage for Las Vegas given that the Chiefs have struggled so much to stop the pass this year, allowing 8.22 yards per target (#7-worst in the league).
In terms of their defense, the Raiders have ranked #15 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 233 yards per game through the air against them (#9 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #14 with 4.46 yards per carry. Las Vegas has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 131 yards per game (#2-best). Las Vegas has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 59 yards per game (#4-worst).
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The Chiefs have won 5 consecutive games, while the Raiders have lost 1 in a row. These two teams are divisional opponents. This rivalry should add extra significance to the game, and both teams are likely to be ultra motivated. The last time these two teams played produced a shootout. Their Week 10 of 2021 contest produced a lot of points, as the visiting Raiders pulled off the road win 40-32. This will be a back-to-back road game for the Raiders. The extra travel won't help the Raiders, and this could slightly upgrade the Chiefs home field advantage.
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The Game Total has had heavy line movement toward the Under. It opened 52.5 before it was bet down to 48.0. The betting handle for this Game Total is notable, because there is reverse line movement. The Over is receiving the majority of the betting handle, however the Game Total has shifted down 4.5 points. Approximately 66% of the bets and 71% of the Cash has been wagered on the Over. This may indicate some smart money was wagered on the Under as Sportsbooks often move lines based on sharp action and not raw betting handles.
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PROJECTION:
Kansas City Chiefs - 26.79
Las Vegas Raiders - 22.12
Win Probability:
KC 67% / LV 33%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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