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Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans - Week 13

 
 
 
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IND HOU
Indianapolis Colts (6-6) at Houston Texans (2-9)

Houston's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #32 in football with a low 273 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their ground attack, clocking in at #32 in the league with just 3.02 yards per carry. Such limited efficiency has led to just the #32-most total rushing yards: 73 per game. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. Unfortunately for Houston, their line ranks #9-worst in the league in run blocking. Wide receiver carries average an extra couple yards per attempt relative to running backs, generally because there's some trickery involved that can get them into open space easier. Despite their issues on the ground, though, Houston has failed to utilize this type of play-calling, getting their receivers involved 0.1% of the time. Perhaps because they routinely failt to successfully establish the run, Houston has also lacked effectiveness through the air. They've scraped together a measly 6.36 yards per target, ranking the bottom 10 in football.
 
When it comes to their defense, the Texans check in at #30 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 262 yards per game against Houston this year (#19 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #29 against them with 4.80 yards per ground attempt. This Texans defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 4.49 yards per target (#1-best in the league). Houston's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 9.70 yards per target (#1-worst in the league).

Indianapolis's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #10 in the league with 377 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their rushing attack, which is #1-best in football with 5.85 yards per carry. This has manifest itself in the #1-most rushing yards per game: 158. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and a worst running back can find success if he's given open space. Indianapolis's o-line ranks #6-best in this regard. This represents a particular advantage for Indianapolis given that the Texans have struggled so much to stop the run this year, allowing 4.80 yards per carry (#4-worst in the league).

In terms of their defense, the Colts have ranked #21 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 263 yards per game through the air against them (#21 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #21 with 4.59 yards per carry. Indianapolis has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 143 yards per game (#8-best). Indianapolis has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 76 yards per game (#1-worst).
 
Photo by Jenna Watson/USA TODAY Sports
 
 
These two teams are divisional opponents. This rivalry should add extra significance to the game, and both teams are likely to be ultra motivated. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 6 in 2021. That game resulted in a road win for the Colts with a final score of 26-20. This will be the 3rd consecutive road game for the Colts. The extra travel won't help the Colts, and this could slightly upgrade the Texans home field advantage.
 
The Game Total has moved a small amount since it opened. It opened 47.0 before it was bet down to 45.5. The betting handle for this Game Total is notable, because there is two sided action. The majority of the Bets have been on the Over, however there is more Cash on the Under. The Over has approximately 76% of the Bets, however the Under has 68% of the Cash. This means there has likely been relatively big wagers on the Under.
 
PROJECTION:
Indianapolis Colts - 27.36
Houston Texans - 17.55

Win Probability:
IND 79% / HOU 21%
 
 
 
 
 
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