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Houston Texans (2-11) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)
This week’s matchup between the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars has all the makings of an ugly game. Both teams limp in with sub-par offenses, with the Texans ranking #32 in the NFL in yards per game at 271 and the Jaguars checking in at #31 with 301 yards per game. As a result of these struggling offenses, the current Game Total on this game is 40.0.
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The Texans biggest weakness has definitely been their pass game. They've attempted a pass on 58.3% of their plays this year, #6-least in football. They've averaged 6.13 yards per target through the air, ranking just #29-best in the NFL. They've been hurt by a poor offensive line, which ranks #25 in the league in pass-blocking. They've also struggled on the ground, averaging just 3.01 yards per carry, #1-lowest in the league. In terms of play-calling, they don't always make sound analytical choices. They rank #28 in the NFL in going for it on 4th down. The math shows coaches ought to be more aggressive on fourth downs, but the Texans don't appear to have gotten the memo.
The Jaguars biggest weakness has definitely been their pass game. They've averaged 5.64 yards per target through the air, ranking just #32-best in the NFL. They've given their quarterback 2.57 seconds before getting pressured, #5-least in football.
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The Texans have lost 3 straight games, while the Jaguars have lost 5 in a row. These two teams are divisional opponents. This rivalry should add extra significance to the game, and both teams are likely to be ultra motivated. It was a thriller the last time these two teams played each other in Week 1 of the 2021 season. The Texans pulled off a road win, outscoring the Jaguars 27-25.
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This matchup has the #2 lowest Game Total this week. Low Totals imply there will be a lack of scoring opportunities and also correlates to a lack of offensive yards. There has been some line movement on the Game Total toward the Under. It opened 43.0 before it was bet down to 40.0. About 53% of the bets are on the Under, while about half of the cash 50% is on the Under.
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PROJECTION:
Jacksonville Jaguars - 22.02
Houston Texans - 17.84
Win Probability:
JAX 65% / HOU 35%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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