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Dallas Cowboys (7-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-6)
Dallas's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #2 in the league with 425 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #3-best in football with 299 yards per game. Perhaps because the defense has to take their pass game so seriously, the Cowboys have also managed to rush for 4.70 yards per carry, which puts them in the top 10. It's no wonder they've done so well through the air when their offensive line ranks #3 in the league in pass protection. Their running backs have been particularly efficient, hauling in 87.2% of the balls thrown their way (ranking #4). This represents a particular advantage for Dallas given that the Saints have struggled so much to stop the pass this year, allowing 8.31 yards per target (#7-worst in the league).
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In terms of their defense, the Cowboys have ranked #23 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 272 yards per game through the air against them (#26 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #16 with 4.42 yards per carry. Dallas has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 5.39 yards per target (#3-best). Dallas has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 187 yards per game (#4-worst).
New Orleans's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 352 yards per game -- #10-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their run defense, which has held opposing ground attacks to the #1-least yards per game: 3.50. This Saints run defense has been anchored by their linebackers, who grade out as the #1-best unit in the NFL. This presents a decided advantage for New Orleans given that the Cowboys have had so little success running the ball this year, managing a mere 4.70 yards per carry (#24-worst in the league).
When it comes to their offense, the Saints check in at #27 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 207 yards per game (#28 in football). Their run game has ranked #25 with 4.09 yards per attempt on the ground. They hit their peak effectiveness when targeting running backs, who have accrued 52 yards per game (#8-best in the league).
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The Saints have lost 4 consecutive games, while the Cowboys have lost 2 in a row. It was a thriller the last time these two teams played each other in Week 4 of the 2019 season. The Saints pulled off a home win, outscoring the Cowboys 12-10.
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There has been some line movement on the Game Total toward the Under. It opened 48.0 before it was bet down to 45.5. The Over has approximately 64% of the bets, but only 41% of the cash.
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PROJECTION:
New Orleans Saints - 22.92
Dallas Cowboys - 22.65
Win Probability:
NO 51% / DAL 49%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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