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Cleveland Browns (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Cleveland's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #2 in the league with 5.34 yards per carry. This has manifest itself in the #2-most rushing yards per game: 155. This is all the more impressive because they've faced a stacked box the #6-most of any team in the league at 19.4%. Even with an extra tackler near the line of scrimmage, the Browns have still thrived on the ground. Wide receiver rushing plays can create confusion for the defense and generally average an extra couple yards per carry, and Cleveland has called more of these plays than most of the teams in the NFL this year.
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In terms of their defense, the Browns have ranked #7 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 240 yards per game through the air against them (#10 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #7 with 4.16 yards per carry. Cleveland has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to a 64.4% completion rate (#8-lowest). Positionally, perhaps their worst defensive asset has been their safeties, which rank just #25 in the league in locking down route-runners.
Baltimore's primary disadvantage has been their pass defense, which has allowed a monstrous 285 yards per game through the air this year, sliding them into the #4 spot among the league's worst. Opposing running backs have given the Ravens the most trouble, posting 9.32 yards per target (#1-worst in football). Baltimore's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their linebackers, who rank just #28 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers.
When it comes to their offense, the Ravens check in at #5 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 259 yards per game (#11 in football). Their run game has ranked #9 with 4.80 yards per attempt on the ground. They hit their peak effectiveness when targeting tight ends, who have accrued 76 yards per game (#4-best in the league).
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These two teams are divisional challengers. This rivalry should add extra significance to the game, and both teams are likely to be ultra motivated. It was quite the blowout the last time these two teams played. The Ravens won by double digits at home, clobbering the Browns 38-6 in Week 14 of 2020. This will be 3 consecutive road games for the Browns. Meanwhile, this will be back-to-back home games for the Ravens. The big difference in travel time between these two teams would favor the Ravens and this may enhance their home field advantage this week.
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The Over has approximately 62% of the bets, but only 37% of the cash.
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PROJECTION:
Baltimore Ravens - 22.96
Cleveland Browns - 20.67
Win Probability:
BAL 55% / CLE 45%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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