Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns - Week 14

Baltimore Ravens (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (6-6)

Cleveland's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #3 in football at 5.18 yards per carry. Such strong efficiency has led to the #4-most total rushing yards per game: 145. What makes the Browns run game success all the more noteworthy is how often they've faced a stacked box: 16.7% of the time, the #7-most of any team. Try as opposing defensives might to put an extra body near the line of scrimmage, Cleveland hasn't been thwarted. Wide receivers carries average an extra couple yards per attempt relative to running backs, generally because there's some trickery involved that can get them into open space easier, and Cleveland has utilized this play-calling strategy more than most of the teams in the NFL this season.

When it comes to their defense, the Browns check in at #4 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 232 yards per game against Cleveland this year (#8 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #7 against them with 4.10 yards per ground attempt. This Browns defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 35 yards per game (#8-best in the league). A strong argument could be made that their worst position group is their defensive tackles, who rank just #24 in the league when it comes to run-stopping.

Baltimore's biggest weakness has been their pass defense, ranking #30 in the league while allowing 278 yards per game through the air. The Ravens have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing running backs, allowing them to rack up 8.77 yards per target (#1-worst). Baltimore's worst position group in coverage has been their safeties, which rank just #28 in the league in locking down route-runners. Baltimore's pass rush has been weak this year, being weighed down by their defensive tackles, which check in as just the #30-best unit in terms of getting to the passer.

In terms of their offense, the Ravens have ranked #4 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 253 yards per game (#12 in football). On the ground they've ranked #10 with 4.66 yards per carry. They've been most effective throwing to tight ends, who have racked up 73 yards per game (ranking #4).

The Browns are coming off a bye and will have had 14 days rest, which is longer then normal. The extra time should help the Browns get healthier and prepare for the game. This may enhance their home field advantage this week. These two teams are divisional rivals. This rivalry should add extra significance to the game, and both teams are likely to be ultra motivated. The last time these two teams played produced a high scoring affair. Their Week 12 of 2021 contest produced a lot of points, as the visiting Ravens pulled off the road win 47-42. This week will mark back-to-back home games for the Browns. Not having to travel should bode well for the Browns, and this could slightly upgrade their home field advantage.

The Over has approximately 59% of the bets, but only 47% of the cash.

PROJECTION:
Cleveland Browns - 20.87
Baltimore Ravens - 20.36

Win Probability:
CLE 51% / BAL 49%

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