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Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers - Week 14

 
 
 
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ATL CAR
Atlanta Falcons (5-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-7)

In what could be a low-scoring game, the Atlanta Falcons faceoff against the Carolina Panthers. This game has the lowest game total in the Week 14, and which is currently 41.0.
 
This game projects as the #3-slowest paced game of the week, with an average of 25.98 seconds per play. A slow pace means both teams will struggle to run a lot of plays (129.2 total plays are projected here). It will take them longer to march down the field, which means fewer possessions for each team and fewer opportunities to score.

Good defensive play will also make points tough to come by. The Panthers defense has excelled this year, allowing a mere 315 yards per game (#2-least in the NFL).

The Atlanta Falcons have run some form of misdirection (either a trick play, trick look, motion, or play action) on 62.6% of their plays this season, #9-least in the NFL. Misdirection confuses the defense and puts players out of position, so naturally, when a team chooses not to mix up their looks (like we see here), their offenses tend to be less effective and score fewer points.

 
Photo by Cat Scratch Reader
 
 
The Panthers are coming off a bye and will have had 14 days rest, which is longer then normal. The extra time should help the Panthers get healthier and prepare for the game. This may enhance their home field advantage this week. These two teams are divisional opponents. This rivalry should add extra significance to the game, and both teams are likely to be ultra motivated. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 8 in 2021. That game resulted in a road win for the Falcons with a final score of 25-17. This will be a back-to-back road game for the Falcons. The extra travel won't help the Falcons, and this could slightly upgrade the Panthers home field advantage.
 
This matchup has the #2 lowest Game Total this week. Low Totals imply there will be a lack of scoring opportunities and also correlates to a lack of offensive yards. The Game Total has had heavy line movement toward the Under. It opened 45.5 before it was bet down to 41.0. The Over has approximately 64% of the bets, but only 37% of the cash.
 
PROJECTION:
Carolina Panthers - 22.34
Atlanta Falcons - 18.84

Win Probability:
CAR 63% / ATL 37%
 
 
 
 
 
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