Victor Wembanyama Points - Player Prop Bet 2/12/2024

NBA · Player Props

Victor Wembanyama

F-C · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Toronto Raptors vs San Antonio Spurs · Feb 12, 2024

Updated Feb 13, 2024 3:53 AM UTC

Analysis

Victor Wembanyama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-137/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Victor Wembanyama has converted 2.4 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.0 more than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the year away from his home court.
This matchup is a tough one for three-pointers; opposing squads have tallied the 7th-least three-point shots per game in the NBA over the last 5 games when the Toronto Raptors are playing at home (11.4).
The rate of three-point shots sunk against Jakob Poeltl has been very high (43.7%) when facing opposing starting Cs this year (100th percentile).
The 3rd-fastest pace road team in the league this year has been the Spurs.
Out of all players in the NBA, Victor Wembanyama registers in the 92nd percentile for free throws hit, tallying a massive 3.8 per game this year.

Favors Under

The San Antonio Spurs are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from competing against the 3rd-most sluggish tempo team in the league over the last 5 games (the Raptors).
Offensive rebounds save possession and bring about more chances for scoring and assists, but the San Antonio Spurs grade out 3rdworst in in the NBA as the visting team with just 9.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.
The Toronto Raptors have allowed the most offensive boards per game (12.3) in the league to opposing squads over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).
The clash with Jakob Poeltl as it relates to drawing fouls registers in the 21st percentile for difficulty with opposing starting Cs attempting only 2.8 free throws per game this year.
Victor Wembanyama ought to suffer a reduction in performance for all stats in light of playing on the visting team in this game.