Victor Wembanyama Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Victor Wembanyama

F-C · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs · Dec 28, 2023

Updated Dec 29, 2023 3:53 AM EST

Analysis

Victor Wembanyama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-112/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Victor Wembanyama has attempted 14.6 field goals per game while playing away from home this year, ranking in the 86th percentile out of all players in the league.
In terms of shot attempts from downtown, the 6th-most aggressive team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the San Antonio Spurs.
The faceoff with Moses Brown measures in only the 100th percentile for difficulty with the other side's starting Cs burying a whopping 74.3% of their field goals since the start of last season when they are on the road.
The Spurs have played at the most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.
This year when they are on the road, opposing clubs have snagged 10.4 offensive rebounds per game (10th-fewest in the league) against the Portland Trail Blazers (shortening possessions that could otherwise lead to extra chances for offense).

Favors Under

Victor Wembanyama has sunk 25.7% of his attempts from beyond the arc this year, putting him in the 21st percentile among all players in the NBA.
The San Antonio Spurs will likely experience a decrease in opportunities in this game from being pitted against the 8th-least up-tempo pace home offense in the league this year (the Trail Blazers).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to added chances for scoring and assists, but the Spurs grade out 4thworst in in the league as the away team with a mere 9.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs against Moses Brown has been very low this year (2.3 free throw attempts per game when they are at home: 23rd percentile).
Victor Wembanyama will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing while traveling tends to reduce player performance in all stat categories.