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Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro Points
Player Prop - 4/18/2025

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat

Tyler Herro Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Tyler Herro has averaged 28.3 points per game over the last 10 games, 4.2 higher than he's averaged in all games this year.

Out of all players in the NBA, Tyler Herro comes in at the 96th percentile for playing time, tallying a monstrous 35.1 minutes per game while playing away from home this year.

The matchup against Atlanta is a strong one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; when the Hawks are at home, the other team's starting PGs have averaged the most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (7.6).

The Atlanta Hawks have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA in their home city this year, which ought to increase opportunities for the Miami Heat.

Tyler Herro has successfully made 7.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 2.5 higher than he's made over the course of the year while on the road.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 3rd-most lethargic pace team in the league this year has been the Miami Heat.

The Miami Heat check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 20 games, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 3.3 free throws per game (3rd-lowest in the NBA) against the Atlanta Hawks, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.

Tyler Herro will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road tends to lower stat production in all facets of the game.

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