Trey Lyles Points - Player Prop Bet 4/9/2023

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Trey Lyles

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Sacramento Kings · Apr 9, 2023

Updated Apr 9, 2023 6:58 PM EST

Analysis

Trey Lyles Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Trey Lyles has sunk 39.9% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 10 games on the road, 8.8% higher than he's sunk over the course of the year away from home.
The Sacramento Kings have been the highest scoring offense in the league this year.
This matchup is a challenging one for threes; when the Nuggets are at home, opposing clubs have compiled the lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (32.5%).
The Sacramento Kings have played at the 7th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games without the home court advantage.
Trey Lyles has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games on the road, 11.8% more than he's put through the net overall this year on the road.

Favors Under

Trey Lyles has been called for 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the NBA when it comes to getting T'ed up (79th percentile).
The Nuggets have played at the 6th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Kings.
The Sacramento Kings rank as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Nuggets have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (15.8) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
This matchup may be a positive one for getting to the free throw line; when the Nuggets have the home court advantage, the other team have attempted a massive 24.2 foul shots per game over the last 25 games (8th-most in the NBA).