Trayce Jackson-Davis Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Trayce Jackson-Davis

F · Golden State Warriors

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat · Dec 28, 2023

Updated Dec 29, 2023 3:13 AM UTC

Analysis

Trayce Jackson-Davis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Trayce Jackson-Davis has sunk 74.1% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 16.8% more than he's put through the net over the course of the season.
The Golden State Warriors have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 25 games, the other team has collected 9.0 offensive rebounds per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Heat (turning over possessions that could otherwise lead to bonus opportunities for offense).
This year when they are at home, opposing teams have attempted 19.0 free throws per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, making it tough to get to the free-throw line.
Trayce Jackson-Davis ought to see a rise in output for all stats as a result of controlling the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Trayce Jackson-Davis rates in the 7th percentile for 3-point attempts while playing at home, logging 0.0 per game this year.
Among all players in the NBA, Trayce Jackson-Davis slots into the 16th percentile for playing time, totaling a mere 11.5 minutes per game this year.
Trayce Jackson-Davis has committed 2.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 higher than he's committed over the course of the season.
As it relates to offense, the Golden State Warriors's unimpressive 45.3% field goal percentage as the home team comes in as the 3rd-weakest in the NBA this year.
This matchup is a favorable one for 3-pointers; their opposition has shot for the 9th-highest three rate in the league this year (37.8%).