Trae Young Points - Player Prop Bet 4/21/2023

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Trae Young

NBA · Player Props

Trae Young

G · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics · Apr 21, 2023

Updated Apr 21, 2023 7:37 PM EST

Analysis

Trae Young Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Trae Young has averaged 26.0 points per game this year, ranking him among the best players in the league by this metric: 97th percentile.
Trae Young has tallied 34.3 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 94th percentile.
The matchup against the Celtics is a good one; they have given up the 26th-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PGs over the last 25 games (21.0).
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games at home.
The Atlanta Hawks have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Trae Young has attempted a lowly 6.3 treys per game this season, significantly lower than his 8.0 mark last season.
The Atlanta Hawks check in as the least aggressive offense in the league this year in terms of attempts from downtown.
The Celtics have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home city, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Hawks.
The matchup against Boston is a difficult one for getting to the free throw line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a measly 3.3 foul shots per game this year when the Celtics are on the road (10th-least in the league).

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