Trae Young Points - Player Prop Bet 3/17/2023

NBA · Player Props

Trae Young

G · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Golden State Warriors · Mar 17, 2023

Updated Mar 17, 2023 10:01 PM EST

Analysis

Trae Young Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-111/-116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Trae Young has scored 27.6 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the league in this category: 99th percentile.
Trae Young has averaged 34.4 minutes per game playing at home this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA.
The Atlanta Hawks check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA while on their home court this year.
While playing on the road, the Warriors have allowed the 5th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.5) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Trae Young has converted 8.6 free throws per game over the last 10 games at home, 1.3 higher than he's sunk over the course of the season while playing at home.

Favors Under

Trae Young has been called for 2.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, 0.9 higher than he's been called for in all games this year at home.
The matchup against the Warriors is a difficult one for three-pointers; the other team's starting PGs have compiled the 13th-lowest three percentage in the league this year (31.3%).
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 9th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Warriors have played at the 5th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games away from their home stadium, which should reduce plays for the Hawks.
The Atlanta Hawks check in as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league with the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).