Terry Rozier Points - Player Prop Bet 2/27/2024

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Terry Rozier

NBA · Player Props

Terry Rozier

G · Miami Heat

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs Miami Heat · Feb 27, 2024

Updated Feb 28, 2024 3:08 AM EST

Analysis

Terry Rozier Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier comes in at the 94th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc, logging 7.0 per game this year.
Terry Rozier has averaged 34.1 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 93rd percentile.
This year when they are on the road, the other team has secured 9.8 offensive rebounds per game (4th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Portland Trail Blazers (losing possessions that could otherwise create extra opportunities for offense).
Terry Rozier has successfully made 95.8% of his free throw attempts over the last 10 games, 8.7% more than he's made overall this season.
As a team, the Miami Heat have been very successful at getting to the charity stripe recently: 4th-best in the NBA over the last 5 games while on the road with 23.6 free throws per game.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. the Trail Blazers is a hard one for 3-point shots; the other team's starting PGs have put up the 13th-lowest three rate in the NBA this year (29.8%).
The least up-tempo tempo road team in the league over the last 25 games has been the Miami Heat.
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA on their home court this year, which should reduce opportunities for the Miami Heat.
The Heat check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Terry Rozier stands to suffer a drop-off in efficiency in all facets of the game on account of being on the road in this matchup.

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