Talen Horton-Tucker Points - Player Prop Bet 2/28/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Talen Horton-Tucker

G · Utah Jazz

Points

Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs · Feb 28, 2023

Updated Mar 1, 2023 12:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Talen Horton-Tucker Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-104/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Talen Horton-Tucker has scored 15.8 points per game over the last 5 games, 5.9 higher than he's scored overall this year.
The matchup against San Antonio is a favorable one for scoring; when the Spurs are the visiting squad, opposing starting PGs have compiled the 28th-highest field goal rate in the NBA this year (45.3%).
The Spurs have played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the league over the last 20 games on the road, which ought to increase plays for the Jazz.
The Utah Jazz check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
Talen Horton-Tucker has made 88.4% of his free throws over the last 10 games, 14.6% higher than he's made overall this year.

Favors Under

Talen Horton-Tucker has committed 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-prone players in the NBA (83rd percentile).
The Utah Jazz rank as the least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 10 games.
The Utah Jazz have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.
Away from their home court, the Spurs have allowed the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.4) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup against San Antonio may be a challenging one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PGs have attempted a measly 2.9 foul shots per game over the last 25 games when the Spurs are the visiting team (12th-least in the NBA).