Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points - Player Prop Bet 5/11/2024

NBA · Player Props

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder · May 11, 2024

Updated May 11, 2024 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander slots into the 99th percentile, tallying a colossal 29.9 points per game this year.
Among all players in the NBA, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander registers in the 81st percentile for field goal efficiency while playing away from home with an impressive 52.7% rate this year.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 34.4 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 93rd percentile.
The Thunder check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games.
This year when they are on the road, opposing starting SGs have totaled 2.8 threes per game (3rd-highest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, marking this as a positive matchup.

Favors Under

The Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to see a decline in possessions today from squaring off against the 6th-least up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 10 games (the Dallas Mavericks).
The Oklahoma City Thunder rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
In contrast to last season's 10.8 rate, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's number of foul shots has fallen this season to 8.7 foul shots per game.
The matchup against the Dallas Mavericks may be a difficult one for drawing fouls; opposing starting SGs have attempted a measly 1.8 free throws per game over the last 10 games (6th-least in the league).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to see a decline in efficiency for all stats in light of being on the road in this game.