Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points - Player Prop Bet 1/12/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Philadelphia 76ers vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Jan 12, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has posted 30.8 points per game this year, putting him among the best players in the league by this metric: 99th percentile.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has sunk a terrific 9.3 free throws per game this season, a big improvement over his 5.9 rate last season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has played 34.5 minutes per game on the road this year, ranking him in the 94th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year on the road (which also provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA this year away from their home court.

Favors Under

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games while playing on the road, 1.4 higher than he's averaged overall this year on the road.
The Oklahoma City Thunder check in as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA since the start of last season while playing away from home.
The Thunder have played at the 6th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league this year, which should reduce plays for the 76ers.
The matchup vs. the 76ers is a hard one for 3-pointers; with the home court advantage, the other team's starting PGs have tallied the 2nd-least treys per game in the league since the start of last season (1.4).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will not hold the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium generally worsens stat production across the board.