Peyton Watson Points - Player Prop Bet 2/28/2024

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Peyton Watson

NBA · Player Props

Peyton Watson

G · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Sacramento Kings · Feb 28, 2024

Updated Feb 29, 2024 3:37 AM UTC

Analysis

Peyton Watson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+110/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Peyton Watson has made 91.7% of his 3-pointers over the last 5 games at home, 50.6% higher than he's made over the course of the season playing at home.
The Denver Nuggets are expected to see a spike in possessions today from squaring off against the 10th-quickest tempo offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Kings).
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Kings have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.1) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
Relative to last season's 45.7% rate, Peyton Watson's foul-shot proficiency has surged this season to 62.7%.

Favors Under

This year, the other team has shot 39.3% on three-pointers (highest in the league) vs. the Sacramento Kings, branding this as a favorable matchup.
The 4th-least up-tempo tempo team in the league this year has been the Denver Nuggets.
In terms of getting to the free-throw line, the Nuggets's subpar 20.7 foul shot attempts per game comes in as the 6th-worst in the NBA this year.
Over the last 15 games, their opposition has attempted 23.4 foul shots per game (3rd-most in the NBA) vs. the Kings, making it fairly effortless to get to the free-throw line.

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