Paul George Points - Player Prop Bet 4/21/2024

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Paul George

NBA · Player Props

Paul George

F · LA Clippers

Points

LA Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks · Apr 21, 2024

Updated Apr 21, 2024 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Paul George Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Paul George has attempted 7.5 treys per game while playing at home this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Paul George has played 33.2 minutes per game while at home this year, ranking him in the 90th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
When it comes to threes, the Clippers's outstanding 38.3% rate of made threes rates 4th-best in the league this year.
The Clippers have played at the 5th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league away from their home city this year, which ought to boost opportunities for the Clippers.

Favors Under

Paul George has committed 2.7 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the highest-fouling players in the NBA (93rd percentile).
The matchup against the Mavericks is a challenging one; they have given up the 2nd-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SFs over the last 15 games (11.4).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and bring about added chances for scoring and assists, but the LA Clippers rank 9thworst in in the NBA when playing at home with a mere 9.9 offensive boards per game this year.
This year when they are playing at home, the other team's starting SFs have attempted 1.6 foul shots per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, facing an uphill battle to get to the free-throw line.

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