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Patty Mills

Patty Mills Points
Player Prop - 3/26/2024

Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors

Patty Mills Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-125/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Miami Heat rank as the 6th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA as the home team this year.

The Heat are expected to see a spike in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the 4th-quickest pace away offense in the league over the last 25 games (the Golden State Warriors).

Compared to last year's 87.0% rate, Patty Mills's free-throw ability has spiked this year to 100.0%.

This year when they are at home, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 3.2 foul shots per game (5th-most in the league) against the Golden State Warriors, finding it easy to draw fouls.

Patty Mills will likely see an increase in production for all stats in light of controlling the home court advantage in this matchup.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

In comparison to last season's 37.8% rate, Patty Mills's scoring performance has regressed this season to 31.7%.

Patty Mills has averaged 2.3 personal fouls per game on his home court this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling.

This year when they are at home, opposing starting SGs have averaged 21.6% on three-pointers (worst in the league) vs. the Warriors, branding this as a tough matchup.

The 2nd-least up-tempo pace team in the league this year has been the Miami Heat.

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and bring about additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 4thworst in in the NBA with just 9.4 offensive boards per game this year.

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