Pat Connaughton Points - Player Prop Bet 4/26/2023

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Pat Connaughton

NBA · Player Props

Pat Connaughton

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat · Apr 26, 2023

Updated Apr 26, 2023 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Connaughton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +101 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pat Connaughton has successfully made 57.5% of his three-point shots over the last 5 games at home, 21.7% higher than he's made from three over the course of the season at home.
Pat Connaughton has tallied 1.2 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the least foul-prone players in the league (19th percentile).
The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 3rd-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.1) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

This matchup is a strong one for three-pointers; their opposition have totaled the 3rd-most treys per game in the league this year (13.2).
The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Bucks.
As a team, the Milwaukee Bucks have been lousy at getting to the free throw line recently: worst in the NBA over the last 10 games with just 16.8 foul shot attempts per game.

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