Pat Connaughton Points - Player Prop Bet 4/22/2023

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Pat Connaughton

NBA · Player Props

Pat Connaughton

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks · Apr 22, 2023

Updated Apr 23, 2023 2:02 AM EST

Analysis

Pat Connaughton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games while playing on the road.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.0) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Pat Connaughton has successfully made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 10 games, 36.0% higher than he's sunk overall this season.
This matchup is a difficult one for getting to the free throw line; their opposition have attempted a mere 20.0 free throws per game when the Heat have the home court advantage this year (least in the NBA).

Favors Under

Pat Connaughton has made 38.3% of his shot attempts from the field this year, placing him in the 15th percentile among all players in the league.
This matchup is a strong one for three-pointers; when the Heat are at home, opposing clubs have totaled the 2nd-most three-point shots per game in the NBA against them this year (13.6).
The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Bucks.
Pat Connaughton will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage tends to decreases player performance across the board.

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