Pat Connaughton Points - Player Prop Bet 4/19/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Pat Connaughton

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat · Apr 19, 2023

Updated Apr 20, 2023 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Pat Connaughton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+100/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pat Connaughton has committed 1.1 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the lowest-fouling players in the league (18th percentile).
The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 3rd-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games.
The Milwaukee Bucks have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.0) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Heat is a hard one for getting to the free throw line; opposing clubs have attempted a lowly 21.1 free throws per game this year (2nd-least in the NBA).

Favors Under

Pat Connaughton has successfully made a measly 37.8% of his shot attempts from the field this season, significantly less than his 45.6 mark last season.
This matchup is a good one for three-pointers; their opposition have tallied the 4th-most threes per game in the league this year (13.0).
The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games without the home court advantage, which should reduce possessions for the Bucks.
Pat Connaughton has converted a mere 64.0% of his free throw attempts this year, a sizeable decrease from his 87.5 rate last year.
As a team, the Milwaukee Bucks have been quite unsuccesful at getting to the free throw line of late: worst in the NBA over the last 5 games playing at home with a mere 15.6 foul shot attempts per game.