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Pat Connaughton

Pat Connaughton Points
Player Prop - 3/29/2023

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks

Pat Connaughton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+108/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Milwaukee Bucks have been the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games.

The matchup against Indiana is a good one for threes; when the Pacers are on their home court, the other team's starting SFs have posted the 30th-highest three rate in the league this year (42.7%).

The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 15 games.

The Pacers have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games in their home stadium, which should lead to more plays for the Bucks.

Pat Connaughton has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 36.0% higher than he's sunk in all games this season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Pat Connaughton has sunk just 38.5% of his shots from the field this season, significantly lower than his 45.6 mark last season.

Pat Connaughton has tallied 2.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 0.9 higher than he's tallied over the course of the year on the road.

The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

While on their home court, the Pacers have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (11.8) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

Pat Connaughton will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court tends to worsens stat production across the board.

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