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Pat Connaughton

Pat Connaughton Points
Player Prop - 3/22/2023

Milwaukee Bucks vs San Antonio Spurs

Pat Connaughton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +108 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Pat Connaughton has tallied 1.1 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the lowest-fouling players in the league (18th percentile).

The matchup vs. the Spurs is a difficult one for 3-point attempts; their opposition have averaged the 2nd-least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (31.3).

The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.

The Spurs have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games, which ought to boost opportunities for the Bucks.

The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league with the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Pat Connaughton has converted a lowly 38.1% of his shots from the field this year, significantly less than his 45.6 rate last year.

The Spurs have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.6) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Pat Connaughton has sunk a measly 64.0% of his foul shot attempts this year, a sizeable decrease from his 87.5 mark last year.

As a team, the Milwaukee Bucks have been poor at drawing fouls in recent games: 6th-worst in the league over the last 20 games at home with a lowly 22.5 free throw attempts per game.

This matchup may be a favorable one for drawing fouls; when the Spurs are away from home, the other team have attempted a colossal 27.0 foul shots per game over the last 25 games (most in the NBA).

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