Paolo Banchero Points - Player Prop Bet 1/2/2024

NBA · Player Props

Paolo Banchero

F · Orlando Magic

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Orlando Magic · Jan 2, 2024

Updated Jan 3, 2024 3:07 AM UTC

Analysis

Paolo Banchero Points Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Paolo Banchero has attempted 22.4 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games away from home, 5.1 more than he's attempted in all games this season on the road.
Paolo Banchero has played 34.1 minutes per game away from home this year, ranking in the 90th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA.
This year when they are away from home, the opposition's starting PFs have tallied 15.8 shot attempts per game (29th-most in the league) against the Warriors, identifying this as a good matchup.
The 7th-quickest tempo road offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Orlando Magic.
The Orlando Magic will likely see a rise in plays today from squaring off against the 6th-most up-tempo tempo home offense in the NBA over the last 17 games (the Warriors).

Favors Under

Paolo Banchero has failed to make 3.3 three-pointers per game over the last 10 games, 1.0 more than he's missed from 3-point range over the course of the year.
The Orlando Magic have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA as the road team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 10 games when they are on the road, opposing clubs have grabbed 12.1 offensive rebounds per game (5th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Golden State Warriors (retaining possessions that can lead to further opportunities for offense).
This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 3.1 free throws per game (7th-lowest in the NBA) against the Warriors, finding it difficult to draw fouls.
Paolo Banchero ought to suffer a drop-off in effectiveness in all facets of the game on account of playing on the visting team in this game.