Paolo Banchero Points - Player Prop Bet 2/11/2023

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Paolo Banchero

NBA · Player Props

Paolo Banchero

F · Orlando Magic

Points

Orlando Magic vs Miami Heat · Feb 11, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Paolo Banchero Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Paolo Banchero has averaged 20.1 points per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 87th percentile -- near the top of the league in this category.
Paolo Banchero has averaged 32.9 minutes per game while on his home court this year, placing him in the 88th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
The matchup vs. Caleb Martin is a strong one for field goal attempts; when Martin is on the road fellow starting PFs this year, they have attempted a colossal 13.2 shots made from the field per game (96th percentile).
The Orlando Magic have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Paolo Banchero has attempted 8.1 free throws per game on his home court this year, putting him in the 97th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

Favors Under

Paolo Banchero has made 26.6% of his 3-pointers this year, placing him in the 24th percentile among all players in the league.
The Orlando Magic have been the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The Orlando Magic have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games on their home court.
The Heat have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should lead to fewer plays for the Magic.
The matchup vs. Caleb Martin is a hard one for getting to the free throw line; when guarding fellow starting PFs this year, they have attempted a measly 3.1 free throws per game (12th percentile).

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