Onyeka Okongwu Points - Player Prop Bet 12/16/2023

NBA · Player Props

Onyeka Okongwu

F-C · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks · Dec 16, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 12:40 AM UTC

Analysis

Onyeka Okongwu Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ +106 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Onyeka Okongwu has made 57.4% of his shots from the field this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among all players in the NBA.
The matchup vs. Cleveland is a strong one for shots from the field; when the Cavaliers are playing at home, the opposing team's starting Cs have shot for the 26th-highest Field Goal% in the NBA this year (62.3%).
The Hawks have played at the 4th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA this year.
The Hawks will likely get a boost in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 10th-quickest pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Cavaliers).
Offensive rebounds continue possession and bring about extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Atlanta Hawks rank 14thbest in in the NBA on the road with 14.6 offensive boards per game this year.

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Onyeka Okongwu measures in the 87th percentile for personal fouls, posting a colossal 2.9 fouls per game while on the road this year.
The Hawks check in as the 5th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The Cavaliers have allowed the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (11.4) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are the visiting squad, the other team's starting Cs have attempted 2.5 foul shots per game (6th-lowest in the league) vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.
Onyeka Okongwu will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home city generally worsens player performance in all stat categories.