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Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic Points
Player Prop - 12/8/2023

Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Nikola Jokic has compiled a whopping 32.2 points per game this season, significantly more than his 25.7 points per game last season.

Relative to last season's 62.9% clip, Nikola Jokic's scoring proficiency has jumped this season to 60.9%.

Nikola Jokic has been on the court for 33.7 minutes per game when playing on the road this year, ranking in the 90th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.

Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 7thbest in in the league with 12.1 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

With the home court advantage, the Houston Rockets have given up the 8th-least offensive boards per game (10.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Nikola Jokic has averaged 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most foul-prone players in the league (76th percentile).

The matchup vs. Houston is a tough one for threes; when the Houston Rockets are playing at home, opposing starting Cs have tallied the 14th-least shots from behind the three-point arc per game in the league this year (0.1).

The Nuggets have played at the 5th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA as the visting team this year.

The Houston Rockets have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA away from their home court this year, which should decrease plays for the Denver Nuggets.

As a team, the Nuggets have been lousy at getting to the charity stripe: 3rd-worst in the NBA this year, tallying a measly 19.5 free throws per game.

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