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Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic Points
Player Prop - 12/2/2023

Sacramento Kings vs Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Nikola Jokic has made an impressive 11.3 field goals per game this season, significantly higher than his 9.8 rate last season.

The Nuggets are expected to see an increase in possessions in this game from facing the 7th-speediest tempo home offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Sacramento Kings).

The Denver Nuggets have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).

This year when they are on their home court, the other team has captured 9.0 offensive rebounds per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Kings (shortening possessions that could otherwise spark added opportunities for offense).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Nikola Jokic has converted a measly 27.8% of his three-point attempts this year, a sizeable decrease from his 37.4 mark last year.

Nikola Jokic has accumulated 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 0.8 higher than he's accumulated overall this season at home.

The Denver Nuggets rank as the 7th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA without the home court advantage this year.

This year when they are at home, opposing clubs have shot 39.1% on three-pointers (3rd-best in the league) against the Sacramento Kings, making this a favorable matchup.

The matchup against the Sacramento Kings is a difficult one for three-point attempts; opposing starting Cs have totaled the 15th-least three attempts per game in the league this year (0.7).

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