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Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic Points
Player Prop - 6/12/2023

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Nikola Jokic has scored 31.3 points per game over the last 15 games, 5.6 more than he's scored in all games this season.

Nikola Jokic has averaged 39.7 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 5.3 higher than he's averaged overall this season.

The Denver Nuggets have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

While on the road, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Nikola Jokic has made 6.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 higher than he's converted overall this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Nikola Jokic has averaged 3.7 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 1.0 higher than he's averaged over the course of the season.

The matchup vs. the Heat is a challenging one; they have given up the 11th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting Cs this year (12.4).

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Nuggets.

As a team, the Denver Nuggets have been bad at getting to the free throw line: worst in the league this year, averaging just 22.3 foul shots per game.

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