Nikola Jokic Assists - Player Prop Bet 3/10/2023

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Nikola Jokic

NBA · Player Props

Nikola Jokic

C · Denver Nuggets

Assists

San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 10, 2023

Updated Mar 11, 2023 12:51 AM EST

Analysis

Nikola Jokic Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nikola Jokic has averaged 7.8 assists per game this year, placing him among the best players in the NBA in this category: 99th percentile.
Nikola Jokic has averaged 32.1 minutes per game away from his home court this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the league.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 6th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The Spurs have played at the 4th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to more plays for the Nuggets.

Favors Under

Nikola Jokic has accumulated 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 higher than he's accumulated over the course of the year.
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Spurs have given up the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (11.3) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Nikola Jokic will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home city usually worsens stat production in all stat categories.

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