Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/4/2025

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets · Jan 4, 2025

Updated Jan 5, 2025 2:06 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-121/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has converted 7.2 shots made from the field per game this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile out of all players in the league.
Michael Porter Jr. has sunk 4.4 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 higher than he's converted from three in all games this year.
Michael Porter Jr. has tallied 34.3 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 92nd percentile.
The 4th-quickest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Nuggets.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 9th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 15 games on their home court, which should increase opportunities for the Denver Nuggets.

Favors Under

The Denver Nuggets check in as the least aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of 3-point attempts.
The matchup vs. San Antonio is a difficult one; when the San Antonio Spurs have the home court advantage, they have allowed the 4th-least points per game in the league to the opposition's starting PFs over the last 5 games (13.0).
The number of fouls drawn by other starting PFs vs. Jeremy Sochan has been remarkably low this year (2.2 foul shots per game: 10th percentile).
Michael Porter Jr. is expected to suffer a reduction in output across the board as a result of playing on the visting team in this game.

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