Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 11/22/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 22, 2024

Updated Nov 23, 2024 3:04 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-118/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made 4.0 threes per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.7 more than he's made from three in all games this year when playing at home.
Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 35.4 minutes per game while at home this year, ranking in the 94th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
The 5th-quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Denver Nuggets.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 6th-best in in the league with the home court advantage with 13.0 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.
Michael Porter Jr. will enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on your home court tends to increase stat production for all stats.

Favors Under

With respect to shot attempts from beyond the arc, the 3rd-least aggressive team in the league this year has been the Nuggets.
The matchup vs. the Mavericks is a difficult one; they have given up the 2nd-least points per game in the NBA to opposing starting SFs over the last 15 games (11.4).
The Nuggets are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from competing against the 5th-least up-tempo tempo road team in the NBA this year (the Mavericks).
Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made a mere 65.9% of his foul shot attempts this season, significantly lower than his 82.8 mark last season.
This year when they are on their home court, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 1.6 foul shots per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Mavericks, making it tough to get to the foul line.