Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/17/2024

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 17, 2024

Updated Mar 17, 2024 11:02 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+100/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has sunk 3.6 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.0 more than he's made from three in all games this season on the road.
Michael Porter Jr. has been on the court for 31.7 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 84th percentile.
The Denver Nuggets are expected to see a spike in opportunities today from sharing the court with the 3rd-fastest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Mavericks).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and produce additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets rank 6th-best in in the league as the road team with 11.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.
Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 19.9% more than he's put through the net overall this year when playing away from home.

Favors Under

The Nuggets check in as the least aggressive offense in the NBA as the visting team this year as it relates to three-point attempts.
This year when they are away from home, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged 0.8 3-pointers per game (fewest in the league) vs. the Mavericks, labeling this as a tough matchup.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 25 games as the road team.
Michael Porter Jr. will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage generally decreases stat production for all stats.

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