Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/15/2024

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 15, 2024

Updated Mar 16, 2024 12:34 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made 3.6 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.0 more than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the year while on the road.
Among all players in the league, Michael Porter Jr. ranks in the 84th percentile for playing time, logging a whopping 31.8 minutes per game this year.
The Denver Nuggets have been the most efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The Spurs have played at the 3rd-fastest tempo in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Denver Nuggets.
Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games on the road, 21.0% higher than he's put through the net in all games this year while playing away from home.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. the Spurs is a hard one for scoring; the opposing team's starting SFs have put up the lowest FG% in the NBA this year (36.0%).
The Nuggets have played at the 2nd-slowest tempo in the league over the last 25 games as the away team.
The Nuggets check in as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Michael Porter Jr. will not have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium generally lowers player production for all stats.

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