Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 2/28/2024

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Sacramento Kings · Feb 28, 2024

Updated Feb 29, 2024 3:37 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-110/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has attempted 15.2 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games, 2.0 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season.
Michael Porter Jr. has tallied 31.6 minutes per game while at home this year, placing him in the 83rd percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
The matchup vs. the Kings is a favorable one for three-point shots; the opposing team's starting SFs have totaled the 28th-most threes per game in the NBA this year (2.3).
The Denver Nuggets are expected to see a spike in possessions today from squaring off against the 10th-quickest tempo offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Kings).
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The 4th-least up-tempo tempo team in the league this year has been the Denver Nuggets.
In terms of getting to the free-throw line, the Nuggets's subpar 20.7 foul shot attempts per game comes in as the 6th-worst in the NBA this year.

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