Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 12/12/2023

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Chicago Bulls vs Denver Nuggets · Dec 12, 2023

Updated Dec 13, 2023 12:54 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-105/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has tallied 30.9 minutes per game while on his home court this year, ranking him in the 79th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the league.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and result in more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 7thbest in in the NBA when playing at home with 12.7 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 4.5 foul shots per game (26th-most in the NBA) vs. the Bulls, easily managing to draw fouls.

Favors Under

Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made a mere 6.0 baskets per game this season, quite a bit less than his 6.1 mark last season.
Relative to last season's 7.8 mark, Michael Porter Jr.'s 3-point attempts have dropped this season to 6.6 per game.
This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have totaled 11.5 shot attempts per game (11th-lowest in the NBA) against the Chicago Bulls, creating a tough matchup.
The 5th-slowest pace-of-play team in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets will likely experience a decrease in opportunities in this game from being pitted against the most lethargic pace road team in the league this year (the Chicago Bulls).

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