Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 11/24/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets · Nov 24, 2023

Updated Nov 25, 2023 1:13 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. rates in the 95th percentile for threes sunk while on his home court, putting up 3.0 per game this year.
This year, opposing starting SFs have tallied 5.7 3-point attempts per game (26th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Houston Rockets, marking this as a strong matchup.
Offensive rebounds save possession and create further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets grade out 8thbest in in the NBA on their home court with 12.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
This year when they are playing at home, opposing teams have brought down 10.2 offensive boards per game (9th-lowest in the league) against the Rockets (lessening possessions that could otherwise bring about additional opportunities for offense).
This year, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 3.7 foul shots per game (26th-most in the league) vs. the Rockets, finding it easy to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Michael Porter Jr. places in the 78th percentile for personal fouls, averaging a whopping 2.5 fouls per game on the road this year.
The Nuggets rank as the 10th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA when playing away from home this year.
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year.
The Nuggets will likely experience a decrease in opportunities in this game from facing the 2nd-most sluggish tempo visiting team in the league this year (the Rockets).
Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made a mere 64.4% of his free throw attempts this year, significantly less than his 80.3 mark last year.