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Michael Porter Jr.

Michael Porter Jr. Points
Player Prop - 6/7/2023

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Michael Porter Jr. has converted a terrific 47.2% of his shots from the field this season, a big improvement over his 36.5 rate last season.

Michael Porter Jr. has tallied 35.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games away from home, 5.2 more than he's tallied in all games this season on the road.

The Denver Nuggets check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing on the road.

The matchup vs. the Heat is a favorable one; they have given up the 30th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SFs this year (17.8).

The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games while on the road.

The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games, which should decrease possessions for the Nuggets.

The Denver Nuggets rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Michael Porter Jr. will not have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing while traveling generally decreases player production in all facets of the game.

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