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Michael Porter Jr.

Michael Porter Jr. Points
Player Prop - 3/30/2023

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-118/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Michael Porter Jr. has posted 21.9 points per game over the last 10 games when playing at home, 4.8 higher than he's posted in all games this season at home.

Michael Porter Jr. has converted 4.0 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's made from beyond the arc overall this season.

The Denver Nuggets have been the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Pelicans have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (6.6) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

The matchup vs. New Orleans is a good one for getting to the free throw line; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a whopping 3.5 free throws per game this year when the Pelicans are the visiting squad (26th-most in the NBA).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Denver Nuggets rank as the 6th-least aggressive offense in the league this year in terms of attempts from downtown.

The matchup vs. the Pelicans is a challenging one; they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting SFs this year (14.1).

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.

The Pelicans have played at the 9th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games on the road, which ought to decrease plays for the Nuggets.

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