Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/3/2023

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies · Mar 3, 2023

Updated Mar 4, 2023 2:26 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has attempted 5.5 treys per game with the home court advantage this year, placing him in the 85th percentile among all players in the NBA.
The Denver Nuggets rank as the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games.
The matchup vs. Memphis is a favorable one for 3-pointers; when the Grizzlies are the visiting squad, the other team's starting SFs have shot for the 28th-highest 3-point percentage in the league this year (40.2%).
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games with the home court advantage.
The Grizzlies have played at the fastest pace in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to increase opportunities for the Nuggets.

Favors Under

The Denver Nuggets rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Grizzlies have allowed the 5th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.4) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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