Malcolm Brogdon Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 5/23/2023

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Malcolm Brogdon

NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Rebounds

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics · May 23, 2023

Updated May 24, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+104/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has tallied 1.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games while playing on the road, 0.4 higher than he's tallied in all games this year on the road.
The Boston Celtics have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Boston Celtics have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.
The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should reduce plays for the Celtics.
Malcolm Brogdon will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling tends to worsens player production in all facets of the game.

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