Luka Doncic Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 5/28/2024

reorder

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NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Rebounds

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves · May 28, 2024

Updated May 28, 2024 10:56 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has averaged 8.4 defensive boards per game this year, ranking him among the best players in the NBA by this standard: 99th percentile.
Among all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic registers in the 100th percentile for playing time, registering a colossal 38.3 minutes per game this year.
Luka Doncic should see an increase in performance for all stats as a result of owning the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has tallied 3.3 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games while on his home court, 0.9 higher than he's tallied over the course of the year at home.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavericks check in as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).