Luka Doncic Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 11/14/2023

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Rebounds

New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 14, 2023

Updated Nov 15, 2023 12:50 AM UTC

Analysis

Luka Doncic Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+105/-145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has averaged 7.8 defensive boards per game at home this year, placing him in the 97th percentile -- one of the best in the NBA by this standard.
Among all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic measures in the 93rd percentile for playing time, logging a colossal 34.8 minutes per game while at home this year.
The 2nd-quickest pace-of-play home offense in the league this year has been the Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavericks are expected to see a rise in possessions in this contest from competing against the 8th-fastest tempo team in the league over the last 10 games (the Pelicans).

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic registers in the 80th percentile for technical fouls, registering a massive 0.0 fouls per game this year.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and create extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks rank 5thworst in in the NBA without the home court advantage with a mere 9.3 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Without the home court advantage, the New Orleans Pelicans have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (16.6) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Luka Doncic will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium tends to decrease stat production in all facets of the game.

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